Will the Conservative Party survive its biggest test in 2024?

The upcoming 2024 UK election is poised to be a pivotal moment in the country’s political landscape, as it arrives amidst a backdrop of crisis and challenges that have significantly impacted the Conservative Party. The party, which has dominated British politics for much of the past decade, is now facing a decline in popularity and support. This article delves into the reasons behind this decline and explores how the ongoing crises have shaped public sentiment leading up to the crucial election year. By examining these factors, we can gain insight into how they may influence both electoral outcomes and the future trajectory of British politics.

In the upcoming 2024 UK election, the Conservative government’s stronghold in the Blue Wall, which encompasses areas in the east and south of the country, cannot be relied upon due to surging inflation, escalating mortgage rates, and widespread strikes. The erosion of support in these regions mirrors historical events such as the defeat of Major Conservatives and the triumph of Tony Blair’s Labour Party. It is worth noting that the turning point in the 1997 general election was not on May 1, 1997, as commonly assumed, but rather on September 16, 1992 – a day forever known as Black Wednesday. On this fateful day, interest rates temporarily soared to an astonishing 15 percent, severely damaging the Tories’ reputation for economic management and ultimately leading to their defeat in subsequent elections.

At what point was the Conservative’s defeat in the 2024 UK election considered inevitable?

The exact answer to this question was from 2019 and the establishment of Brexit until 2021 and Johnson and his government’s violations of the restrictions of Covid-19. These accumulated crises are reason enough for the Conservative’s defeat in the 2024 UK election. In the 2024 UK election, the Labor Party will ask the Conservative Party whether the financial situation of the British people and their wallets is better than five years ago. Rishi Sunak’s answer is no. So publicly, the conservatives have no hope of winning the upcoming 2024 UK election.

A crisis of distrust in conservatives

Rishi Sunak’s brand has become outdated, leading to concerns that he may meet a fate similar to former British Prime Ministers John Major and Gordon Brown, both from the Conservative Party. The current crisis of no confidence stems from Boris Johnson’s violations, alleged illegal activities, and the failure to deliver on Brexit promises. This complete inability to manage Brexit effectively could potentially result in Rishi Sunak losing in the upcoming UK general election.

Internal tensions of the Conservative party

When Boris Johnson was officially accused of lying to the representatives, he resigned from his representation in the House of Commons. He criticised the government of his fellow Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The Tories’ intra-party divisions are no secret, but hostility to Johnson, who is using all his might to undermine Sunak’s Tory government, appears to be at an all-time high.

High probability of Conservatives’ defeat in the general election

Internal tensions have created speculation that since the conservative defeat in the next general election is inevitable, the fight will end the day after. Johnson intends to return to politics by weakening Sunak again as the party’s leader, especially since he has openly declared that he does not consider his political work finished.

Reducing the credibility of conservatives in public opinion

The latest poll conducted in the UK shows that the report of the parliamentary investigation committee of this country about the controversial party of the prime minister’s office at the height of the Covid-19 restrictions has dealt a heavy blow to the credibility of the conservative ruling party led by Rishi Sunak. The findings of the YouGov survey show that only 27% of British people have a favourable view of the Prime Minister, and on the other hand, 61% believe that he is not the right choice to lead the government.

Partygate’s significant damage to the public credibility of conservatives

Although the profound economic and financial problems of the country have severely damaged the credibility of the British government and reduced the chance of victory of the ruling conservative party in next year’s parliamentary elections, research shows that the publication of the recent report of the British Parliament’s investigation committee about the Partygate incident has caused significant damage to The credit of the government has been hit. A YouGov poll earlier last week showed that 57% of Britons believe Sunak failed to handle the Partygate scandal well.

Increasing popularity of the Labour Party in the UK

Keir Starmer, the leader of the opposition party (Labour), has been experiencing a surge in popularity during this period. According to recent YouGov findings, 36% of the British population now view him as an excellent choice to lead the government. Moreover, in a broader evaluation, 40% of the British people expressed their support for the Labour Party, indicating a one-percentage-point increase compared to the previous week’s poll.

In contrast, the popularity of the ruling Conservative party has taken a hit, with reports indicating a significant decline of 19%, settling at 4%.

Boris Johnson’s indictment in the Partygate case

The survey results were recently published, coinciding with the release of a comprehensive report by the British Parliament’s investigative committee. The report, consisting of over 40,000 words, accused former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson of deliberately misleading both Parliament and the public regarding illegal parties held during the height of the Covid-19 restrictions, now known as Partygate.

The origins of Partygate can be traced back to a controversial report by the Daily Mirror in November 2021. According to the newspaper, the British Prime Minister’s office hosted parties and non-work-related celebrations when such gatherings were strictly prohibited in closed spaces due to Covid-19 restrictions.

In response to the report’s disclosure, Boris Johnson apologised and consented to an independent investigation. The task of conducting the research was entrusted to Mrs Sue Gray. Concurrently, the Metropolitan Police initiated a separate independent investigation into potential breaches of Covid-19 restrictions at the Prime Minister’s Office, leading to Johnson being found guilty and fined.

The initial investigation report by Ms Gray was released on January 31, 2022, with the final report in May 2022. These reports highlighted several incidents, including excessive alcohol consumption and a lack of respect for cleaning and security staff.

Ultimately, the investigation concluded that the country’s highest-ranking political figure should be held accountable for the cultural violations surrounding Partygate.

Intensification of public discontent against conservatives

Last week’s report stated that Johnson misled the Parliament, distorted the committee’s investigation process, and undermined the country’s democratic principles. The report added that Johnson had “committed a grave insult by deliberately misleading Parliament.” The investigation committee of the British Parliament has described the offence committed by a prime minister as the highest-ranking government member as a more severe insult that has never been seen in the past.

Unprecedented action by members of the House of Commons against Boris Johnson

In an unprecedented move, members of the British House of Commons overwhelmingly supported and endorsed a report that condemned a former Prime Minister of the UK, marking the first accusation of fraud against a former premier in modern British history. Due to this vote, Boris Johnson’s permission to enter the parliament building was revoked. Had he not resigned as a Member of Parliament, he would have faced a 90-day ban from participating in the legislative body’s meetings.

Sunak’s fruitless attempt to manage the Conservatives’ discredited crisis

Although Sunak is trying to distance the government from the negative consequences of this scandal, observers believe that this issue, along with the series of economic problems in the country, has reduced the chances of the ruling party’s victory in next year’s elections. The date of the British general election has yet to be announced, but according to the usual procedures, it is likely to be held in May or October 2024.

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