The Conservative Party’s Future and Rishi Sunak’s Fate

Tory Leaders Left a Mess Behind 

The current UK Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, Rishi Sunak, has inherited a government beset by numerous difficulties. Sunak’s credibility will be put to the test in the upcoming Conservative-held by-elections, which will be crucial for his standing within the Party. It is worth noting that the UK has seen four consecutive Prime Ministers who have failed to stay in office.

Before Rishi Sunak, the UK saw Liz Truss holding the shortest term as Prime Minister, while Boris Johnson began his tenure on a high note but was ultimately embroiled in scandals and faced opposition within his administration.

Sunak Came After Resigned Leaders 

Boris Johnson’s predecessor Thresa May could not break the impasse over Brexit and had to resign. Previously, the former Conservative leader David Cameron resigned after the Brexit referendum. Rishi Sunak succeeded four resigned prime ministers who needed help to complete their terms in office. The recent local elections were the first major electoral test for Rishi Sunak. However, the opposition Labour could overtake the Conservatives in many councils, a considerable boost for the Labour Party.

What will happen to Rishi Sunak?

The Conservative Party under Sunak witnessed many local election defeats against Labour and Lib Dems.

The same outcome may happen to Rishi Sunak again in the upcoming by-elections. His predecessor Boris Johnson on Friday resigned as an MP, so his seat in Uxbridge is empty. A by-election in his constituency is announced, which makes some Labour MPs happy. It is another opportunity for the Labour Party to rechallenge the Conservatives’ premiership. 

Sunak’s Predecessor’s Turmoil Continues 

Boris Johnson has stepped down after he received a report from the MP-led Privileges Committee about the party-gate scandal. The committee had been investigating whether he misled the House of Commons over alleged lockdown breaches at Downing Street when Johnson was the prime minister.

He claimed he had been forced out of Parliament, and two other MPs, loyal to Johnson, have resigned following him. Three empty seats contest will be a challenge for Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party. 

Conservatives Recorded Several Snap General Elections 

Rishi Sunak might call a general election sooner than the due time in 2024/2025. General elections in 2017 and 2019 were also snap elections called by the Conservative leaders. Sunak’s resignation last year as the chancellor blew Johnson’s premiership.

Hereafter, the serial resignation hit the Conservative Party’s leadership position and public reputation. The Labour leader Keir Starmer seized the opportunity and blamed the Conservatives for their poor leadership and collapsing government.

A Snap Election Could Be a Fresh Start for Tories

Keir Starmer has lately blamed the Conservative government again and named Rishi Sunak, a weak prime minister.

If an election is called, what happens to Rishi Sunak’s premiership is still being determined. The Conservatives are still the majority in the Commons and do not have to call a general election until January 2025. However, the Conservatives are losing popularity and may need a fresh start. 

Conservatives Face a Nightmare 

If Rishi Sunak calls an election soon and it goes well, the result will give him a fresh mandate to govern. Nevertheless, the Labour could do well enough to secure the majority of seats and end the 13-year-long Conservative governing.

Now, Rishi Sunak is facing a by-election nightmare as the Conservative Party’s votes have dropped. Thus, a snap general election may not give any shock to boost the Party’s position.

Does Johnson Hope for a Return? 

Boris Johnson created political dramas during his premiership, while Rishi Sunak has tried to pass over them. However, Johnson’s recent angry resignation could build new drama and lower the public trust in the Conservatives. Johnson’s shocking quit might be an attack on his disloyal former minister Rishi Sunak who eased Johnson’s departure. Thus, Johnson might shockingly quit because he planned for a return to leadership; it is hard to expect that, however. 

Sunak May Suffer the Fate of His Predecessors

The resignation and the must-to-be-done by-elections make everything more difficult for Rishi Sunak. Like Liz Truss, who remains in memory as the shortest-ever prime minister, Sunak may be remembered as the most unfortunate prime minister.

The by-elections could result in failures for Sunak and the Conservative Party during his leadership. Sunak’s Conservative Party must defend the seats. Otherwise, there could be a formidable general election ahead for the Party.

Tories Went from Triumph to Lose

In the 2019 general election, the Conservative Party gained the most significant majority of any government since 2001. The result was the Party’s highest number of seats since Margaret Thatcher was their leader. Then, Boris Johnson proudly hailed the Conservative landslide as a political earthquake.

Four years later, three prime ministers ruled the Conservative Party while it dropped to a lower position. Anything might happen to Rishi Sunak; for instance, he could be out of power sooner than his term is over. 

Labour’s Rising Popularity Threatens Tories 

In a general election, the Conservatives may lose some constituencies not to the Labour Party but to the Lib Dems. Thus, the Conservative Party’s seats in the next general election are expected to decrease dramatically.

The more the Conservatives lose seats, the better for the Labour. The Labour Party is ahead of Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government in the polls. By winning seats in local elections, it became the largest Party in local government, threatening the Conservatives’ position.

People Are Hopeful for Labour Majority 

An Ipsos report has shown that 76% of Britons are dissatisfied with how the Sunak government runs the UK. And 63% of Britons expect Labour to be the biggest Party after the next general election.

Moreover, the Labour leader talks about the majority at the next general election. Consequently, the snap election is worrisome for Rishi Sunak’s political reputation as his fate may be the prime minister losing to Labour. 

What Will Happen to Rishi Sunak? 

The current state of affairs for Rishi Sunak is undeniably linked to the Conservative Party’s downward trajectory. Despite efforts to address the numerous crises and chaotic situations, the Party has been unable to effectively resolve its issues.

Earlier Prime Ministers, including Boris Johnson, made commitments to refrain from increasing taxes but later reneged on their promises. Meanwhile, Liz Truss’s significant tax reduction only contributed to the already existing chaos. The Party may find it difficult to gain traction in a general election due to a combination of right-wing and centrist factions. As a result, Rishi Sunak’s political standing may suffer from the Party’s shortcomings.