Post-Brexit: Convergence or divergence in domestic politics?

The Labour Party was the biggest loser of the British politics in the last general election after it sustained its worst electoral defeat since 1935 in December 2019. The defeat has been attributed, by the mainstream media, to a couple of factors including the Labour’s approach to Brexit. A similar judgement is made to justify the failure of the Liberal Democrats in the 2019 election. But result can also indicate how nationalism is in rise in the sceptred isle.

Now with Brexit executed, it is time to think ‘now what’. If we accept the argument that Boris Johnson’s party won the election because of its slogan ‘Get Brexit Done,’ now is the time to ask the question what else Tory is needed for.

Ironically, cutting umbilical cord from the EU has not been so pompous and flurry as the Tories expected to be. Quite the contrary, the UK is now witnessing problems in borders for importing and exporting with its biggest trade partner; the European Union.

If the current situation keeps hovering over Britain, devolution will become more and more appealing in Scotland and Northern Ireland. That is what London wants once in the blue moon.

London will suffer from two big losses if what sceptics predicted come true; British economy starts to shrink and Scotland revolts to be independent in order to join the EU.

The wheel of politics is still in the hands of the Tories!!

The past is a good example to convince us that the Tory winning run will not be forever. Different contributing elements will be of influence in future general elections in the UK. Economic indicators have to be considered to be at the top of the list of impact makers.

Brits will not vote for conservatives if they see their pockets in danger. Accordingly, the economic status of the UK in the coming years is of great capacity in the British politics.

Tory has been claiming traditionally Labour seats in the last decades and politicians have been thinking of the reason. Among the justifications offered is the rise of nationalism in the West. However, the left is also making some changes to adapt itself with these realities. As nationalists lost in the 2020 presidential election, there is a fair chance that the same thing could happen in the UK in the next election.

The Conservatives’ victory in the last general election is partially owed to flaws in the Labour’s election campaign with a vague message which was neither appealing nor clear in many areas.

It means that if the Tory faces a strong opponent in the next general election, it is prone to lose what it gained in December 2019.

So all in all, the Tory party will not stay popular forever, if these things happen; (1) the British economy fall in trouble after Brexit, (2) the UK breaks apart by devolution, (3) and the Labour party deliver more appealing messages to the public.

Brexiteers were politically playing tricks with a blame game against immigrants and European Union bureaucrats for what was in reality Westminster’s failures. They have won in the short run but they are on a very shaky ground if they fail to find any achievement to be exhibited.

Labor and Tori have become closer ????

Labour will make a clean break from its divisions over Europe and will not seek major changes to the UK’s relationship with the EU, Labour leader Keir Starmer said on the eve of the vote on the post-Brexit trade deal, vowing to shift Labour’s focus to “Britain in the 2030s” rather than the battles of 2016.

The U-turn may be considered by some as a sign that the Labour and the Tory are getting closer after Brexit. But the history of political interactions in the modern world shows that different parties may concede to some degree of modification in historic turning points. However, different parties will still compete over gaining a stronger hold of power.

Walter Russell Mead, a historian at Bard College, described Boris Johnson’s ‘National Conservatism’ as a ‘pro-enterprise political approach that is nevertheless grounded in the traditional sentiments and loyalties of the people.’ It means that the Labour and the Tory are still supporting opposite economic camps but the change in their appeal is another story. Despite Labour’s leftist approach, the workers in England are more and more aligning with the Conservative Party. A phenomenon that is pushing Labour politicians to deliver a different message to the public.

Division between British parties will not heal after Brexit. The consequences following the recent developments in the country will pave the ground for more rivalling arguments and that would set the field for new political theatrics in Westminster.

The official stance of the Labour in the time of ratifying the post-Brexit trade deal with the EU was that anything is better than nothing. This again can give Labour politicians a chance in the future to say that they did not want the deal wholeheartedly, if in any case the deal brings negative consequences for the UK.

However, if the Tory is going to prevent any economic difficulties in the post-Brexit era with measures against workers, then there is a fat chance for the Labour gaining ground in the next general election. The Financial Times reported in January that Downing Street has authorized the business department to remove the cap on the 48-hour work limit in a week, in a post-Brexit shake-up of regulations. The worker protections enshrined in EU law are the easiest way for London to immunize the British economy to the looming changes in labour markets after Brexit.

The SNP has said the proposed changes prove independence is the only way to protect workers in Scotland.

Again the reaction by the SNP shows that the Brexit is expected to be contributing to grim economic impacts and devolution in the long run, which both are against the interests of London.

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