The ceasefire agreement between Hezbollah and Israel brokered by the United States and France states is to promote conditions for a permanent and comprehensive situation. The ceasefire does not seem to have a permanent result. The strategy of Israel is to make a fracture among the countries of the Axis of Resistance, including Iran and Iraq.
This ceasefire will last if the same happens in Gaza. Israel’s strategy in post-ceasefire Middle East is also related to other countries. European countries must force Israel and its ally, the USA, to make a ceasefire in Gaza. However, Israel’s plan will not break down the Axis of Resistance, as previous events like the assassinations of Nasrallah and Hanieh have proven.
Ceasefire between Hezbollah and IsraelÂ
The ceasefire includes 13 separate points of agreement. Both sides are required to adhere to agreed-upon timetables. The ceasefire is for withdrawal from or arrival in designated regions of southern Lebanon that have long been military strongholds for Hezbollah. Leaders on both sides of the months-long conflict have attempted to portray this ceasefire as a success.
Israel’s Strategy in Post-Ceasefire Middle East: Why the Parties Agreed to A Deal?
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has explained the ceasefire will allow Israel to “focus on Iran.” It lets the Israeli troops recover and divide Hezbollah from Hamas in Gaza.
Analysis in Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggested there had also been an increase in US pressure on Israel. Moreover, it is because far-right politicians in Netanyahu’s coalition government did not threaten to withdraw from the government. However, they did so previously when a ceasefire in Gaza was suggested. Israeli air raids in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq may face very little danger. However, the attempt to enter Lebanon was much deadlier. Hezbollah fighters were along the border, and the Israeli military’s death toll was mounting.
Israel’s Strategy in Post-Ceasefire Middle East: No Strategy Â
After almost a year of raging war in Gaza, the conflict in the Middle East is rapidly widening, and Western diplomatic efforts continue to fall short. Over the last week, Israel launched an unprecedented campaign of strikes across Lebanon, dealing a series of powerful military blows to Lebanon’s Hizbullah group.
Despite these tactical wins, Israel still lacks a strategy to end Hizbullah’s attacks on the north of the country. The group says the attacks are a direct response to Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza. Instead, Israel’s military actions are fuelling a disastrous conflict in Lebanon, which has no viable diplomatic solution.
A Ceasefire For Lebanon without Gaza
The ceasefire deal does not apply to what’s going on in Gaza. Biden has said he hopes the momentum created by the Lebanon agreement might lead to a similar outcome in Gaza. However, Israel’s Netanyahu has already reacted negatively to that suggestion. Gaza-based militant group Hamas “appreciates” Hezbollah’s right to strike a deal protecting its people. Hamas was also ready for a ceasefire deal, the official said.
The ceasefire has not changed the intentions of the other members of the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The ceasefire agreement makes an escalation toward a direct, all-out war between Israel and Iran much less likely. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson praised the deal, adding that a ceasefire was also necessary in Gaza.
Israel’s Strategy in Post-Ceasefire Middle East: The Iran factor
Israel’s strategy in post-ceasefire Middle East involves Iran as one of the countries supporting Hizbullah. While Iran has signaled its desire to avoid a direct confrontation with Israel, it may also eventually feel compelled to step up its military support for Hizbullah, which lies at the heart of Iran’s deterrence strategy against both Israel and the US.
Greater Iranian involvement in support of Hizbullah would risk provoking a direct confrontation with Israel. Moreover, it might draw in the US, whose forces have been regularly targeted by pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq. This would be a nightmare scenario for Europeans, given its profoundly destabilising impact across the Middle East.
Israel’s Strategy in Post-Ceasefire Middle East: The Only Diplomatic Exit Ramp
The Israeli government is unwilling to enter into a Gaza ceasefire that all sides, including the US, Israel’s key backer, say is ready to come to an end. It is high time for Europeans to acknowledge the cost of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s obstructionism. It risks a catastrophic broader conflict. A ceasefire in Gaza remains the only viable diplomatic path to sustainably end the fighting between Israel and Hizbullah. It is also the best policy for the estimated 60,000 displaced Israelis to return to their homes in the north of the country.
The worst-case outcome is not inevitable, but it will require to avert an urgent course correction. European countries and the US must urgently press Israel to end its attacks on Lebanon and agree to an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Sustained calm could then serve as a basis for meaningful negotiations to address tensions between Israel and Hizbullah. From a European standpoint, this approach should include ending arms sales to Israel and reviewing the EU’s Association Agreement with the country. However, Europeans must also do more to press the US to use its military leverage over Netanyahu.
Israel’s Future Plan Will Not Work: Axis of Resistance Will Join to StrengthenÂ
Wednesday’s ceasefire should, in theory, lead to “a permanent cessation of hostilities” between Israel and Hezbollah. It will be the “gradual” withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, according to US President Joe Biden.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, a coalition of armed groups, said Hezbollah’s decision to halt the fighting was “purely Lebanese“. It added that there would be no let-up in its own activity. “The break of one party from the Axis of Resistance will not affect the unity of the arenas. Rather, new parties will join to strengthen the arena of the holy conflict to confront the enemies of God, His Messenger, and the believers,” it said.
Israel’s Strategy in Post-Ceasefire Middle East: Axis of Resistance Will Not Sit Back
The last four years have seen repeated blows to the Axis of Resistance, with long-standing, influential leaders killed by the US and Israel. Qassam Soleimani, head of Iran’s elite Quds Force and a key coordinator of the Axis, was assassinated in Baghdad in January 2020. Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, a prominent Iraqi paramilitary leader, was also killed.
In the past year, Israel has killed Hamas leaders Ismail Haniyeh, Yahya Sinwar, Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine. Despite all these blows, experts believe that none of these factions are under any existential threat. They suggested that leadership is not as central to the organisation as Israel thought.
