The relationship between Turkey and the EU lies in its worst condition. Such a relationship has been remarkably disrupted; boosting it depends on many factors. Turkey-EU ties are where even experienced politicians need more effective attempts to recover them. The two sides must work efficiently to revive their relationship and return Turkey-EU’s relation to its previous condition.
Turkey-EU relationship
The EU’s relationship with Turkey is stuck at an impasse; EU policymakers can no longer conduct effective diplomacy or formulate a broader geopolitical strategy premised on Turkey. They must look elsewhere and innovate to regain some influence over Turkey’s democratic backsliding and other elements of Brussels’ relations with Ankara. Indeed, Turkey’s EU relationship has been related for a long time. Their relationship has a long history.
Since 2013, the Turkey-EU relationship has been in an unpleasant situation. Many different reasons exist for the tensions between the EU and Turkey.
Inside Turkey, power is concentrated in the Turkish presidency. While the opposition doesn’t influence Ankara’s decision, it does shape the views and positioning towards Turkey of European political and social counterparts.
However, there is an excellent disarrangement between these two countries; The EU Commission is trying to maintain its relationship with Turkey even though it is eager to boost its ties with Turkey.
Turkey’s separation from the EU
After Turkey announced its request based on its separation from the EU, the EU is trying to save its relationship with this country. This announcement and such announcements may sound easy in a word, but in a detailed view, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can cause significant conflict. Indeed, the EU needs to be a strong Union globally, and this kind of disengagement will harm its unity. The EU needs a united front, and the countries that are members of the EU can help this country’s unity. Anyway, the EU needs to protect its ties with some countries like Turkey from being more robust and more united globally.
Since the EU relationship with Turkey has had some challenges, Turkey avoided having a consensus with the EU.
As a result of Turkey’s refutation of aligning with the EU policies, after the last seven years of having a bad relationship, Brussels had now considered this refutation a mere annoyance until the outbreak of war in Ukraine when Turkey declined to adopt EU sanctions or Russia. Last year, Turkey tried hard to join Ukraine, but Ukraine’s situation was so terrible that an action like that could be dangerous for the future of Turkey. Indeed, Turkey has a critical geographical condition, and joining Ukraine could have worked better. On December 2022, Turkey announced its position in the EU as a candidate, which frustrated the EU.
Even during Ukraine- Russia war, Turkey had no alignment and unity with the EU in front of Russia, and this nonalignment made the EU angrier than Turkey.
Turkey’s presidential election on May 14th
 Turkey’s presidential election is going to be held on May 14th. Rajab Erdogan said that on May 14th, Turkey would have its presidential election officially.
According to Erdogan, holding this election is completely necessary for the future of Turkey. Indeed, Erdogan has been the president of Turkey for two decades. Because of Erdogan’s inefficient presidential time, many opponents are trying to become his substitute in the May 14th presidential election. The earthquake in February caused 46000 to die and made hundreds of thousands of people have to live in tents without shelter. This earthquake and his lack of ability to control that critical situation caused him to be known as more inefficient in governing Turkey.
Although this earthquake in the south of Turkey showed his disability to manage a country, he still defended his government by pretending that he had a prominent government. Erdogan has been Turkey’s president since 2014 and has occupied Turkey’s presidential occasion for two decades. So holding an honest presidential election in Turkey has a significant role in the future of this country because this country needs essential changes.
Will Erdogan remain Turkey’s president in the next presidential election?
Indeed, Erdogan has been the president of Turkey for two decades. Erdogan, Trump, and Putin are presidents who have ruled their countries for a long time. And being the president of a country for more than two decades is entirely illegal and is the very meaning of dictatorship. So no one can be the president of a country for more than two decades unless he needs more opportunity to have extra time for improving his land.
There are three essential laws in Turkey’s presidential election. According to these laws, the presidential election should be based on these three facts.
- Presidential time is only five years, and a president can keep his presidential position only two times. Turkey’s big international parliament can decide for presidential reelection with three-fifths of its prominent members. So in this situation, it can hold its wide presidential election.
- “If the Assembly decides to renew the elections during the second term of the president of the republic, he/she may once again be a candidate.”
According to these three rules, Turkey’s following presidential election result is obvious. There is only one exception: a president can govern a country. In this part, he can have another opportunity if the government officials recognize that he has limited time for his decision. In this situation, the government ignores these three rules and lets him have another opportunity for his plans.
Turkey’s election effect on its relations with the EU
Indeed, Turkey is one of the most important neighbours of the EU; its importance is because it is a member of NATO and is a candidate for EU membership. Turkey’s EU relation history is related to many years ago, and the next presidential election of this country will significantly impact the future of these two countries’ ties. Over the past decade, these two countries haven’t had a good relationship with each other, and their relationship has deteriorated. Because of this effect, they are going to face bad events that have terrible consequences for both of these two countries. Three fundamental reasons have caused this deterioration. Ruling a government for two decades with the same president has caused Turkey to be a democratic country. Many bilateral conflicts between Turkey and several member-states further undermined Ankara’s EU accession process—many complicated differences between different policies, with many member-states seeing Turkey’s positions as antagonistic.
What will happen if Erdogan remains in power?
If Erdogan remains in power, Turkey’s EU relationship will deteriorate. Turkey and the EU must have a relationship with each other because it’s too important for both of them. Turkey’s EU relation will not decline if Erdogan decreases his democratic strategies and avoid confrontation with the EU members-state. So the presidential election on May 14th will determine the future of Turkey’s EU relationship. Because of Turkey’s EU relation history, these two countries need to improve their ties more and more, and Turkey needs to expand its relations with the West too. If Erdogan remains in power, Turkey and the EU should wait for worse events and more deterioration.
