According to the National Centre for Social Research, the average of six recent polls shows 56 percent of respondents favor rejoining (or joining). However, the individual polls varied from 60 to 49 percent in favor. Even more telling is a report by UK in a Changing Europe and Public First (of which my daughter is a founding partner), published in September.
This Public opinion on joining the European Union reported that 22 percent of Leave voters thought that Brexit had turned out badly or very severely against only 18 percent who thought it had turned out well or very well. “Bregret” then is rife. The fact that Leave voters feel so let down is not surprising. However, it is also not good for the reputation of the UK’s democracy.
The post-Brexit economy and UK–EU trade
While the UK may have notionally ‘taken back control’ over policy areas such as trade and migration, as campaigners for Brexit insisted it would. Empirical evidence suggests that leaving the European Union has negatively affected the UK economy. Slower GDP growth and slower trade growth than comparable economies are critical indicators of this.
The UK is a very open economy, and trade value relative to GDP is close to 70 percent. More than one-fifth of UK jobs are directly or indirectly associated with the exporting activities of UK firms.
Average wages tend to be higher in exporting sectors. Meanwhile, importing offers the country access to a greater range and quality of consumer goods and intermediate inputs. Several factors are important drivers of the UK economy. The factors include prices, UK firms’ competitiveness, and future investment and economic growth in the country.
British public opinion has shifted powerfully, which is evident
According to a new poll, only ten percent feel Brexit has helped their financial status. It is while just 9% say it has improved the NHS, despite a £350m a week pledge. A clear majority of the British public now feels Brexit has been bad for the UK economy.
Public opinion on joining the European Union shows that Brexit has driven up prices in shops. It has also hampered government endeavors to control immigration, according to a poll by Opinium.
It is irregular for voters to change their minds soon after referendums. Experience from Canada to Scotland and Norway to Switzerland suggests that opinions tend to move in favor of a referendum result more than they swing against it.
But Brexit seems to be an exception. Since the 52-48% vote in favor of leaving the European Union in June 2016. The majority view among Britons has shifted. Especially in the past two years, towards the conclusion that the decision was wrong. Public opinion on joining the European Union is increasing.
Public opinion on joining the European Union
The British public’s judgment to leave the European Union in the referendum of 2016 was far from the end of the discussion around Britain’s future as a member state. The debate has continued to trundle on. Albeit more quietly compared to the period of parliamentary chaos. This chaos occurred between 2017 and 2019, with support for the prospect of re-joining the EU continuing to rise.
Currently, support for re-joining the EU (49%) is higher than support for staying out (35%), which has been the case since July 2022. Public opinion on joining the European Union is a signal.
Meanwhile, there are positive views about the EU on the continent. 77% of Europeans are in favor of a common defense and security policy among EU countries. In comparison, 71% of EU citizens agree that the EU needs to reinforce its capacity to produce military equipment.
At the same time, 69% of EU citizens are for a common foreign policy of the Member States. 67% agree that the EU is a place of stability in a troubled world, and 69% that the EU has enough power and tools to defend the economic interests of Europe in the global economy.
Labour has ruled out any attempt to re-join the EU
Even if they wanted to re-join, the way back to full EU membership is tricky. Something both Labour and the Conservatives acknowledged as part of the Better Together Campaign in 2014. They highlighted that the route to membership would be challenging for an independent Scotland.
To become an EU member, prospective member states need all current member states to accept their application. This is particularly difficult given the diverging interests of the 27 member countries.
The UK’s withdrawal from the EU has meant a gain in representation in the European Parliament. It had a greater influence on decision-making in the Council for some member states. As time passes, the UK diverges from EU standards, suggesting that the way back to membership would be difficult.
Labour seeks improved relations with the EU
It is ruling out re-joining the customs union, the European Single Market, and the free movement of Labour. It proposes a more judicious approach to free trade agreements and has committed to publishing a trade strategy.
Closer integration with the EU will result in closer alignment with EU rules and regulations. Such a stance for Labour risks being portrayed as being “anti-Brexit.” It fears the (over-)reaction of the UK’s right-leaning press to any suggestion of surrendering sovereignty to the EU.
Labour also recognizes that any Brexit-related promises that involve negotiation with the EU will be hard to deliver, given the EU’s lack of trust in the UK. In addition, some pro-Brexit sentiment still exists in the Labour Party.
Brexit has strengthened the EU
Firstly, Britain leaving the EU removed a country that was frequently an obstacle to progress or at least made cooperation more difficult. For example, Prime Minister David Cameron vetoed a new EU-wide treaty in 2011, designed to salvage the single currency. Without the UK, the EU has continued to deepen the single market. The Eurozone also has more power to drive economic and financial policy.
Secondly, the EU’s far-right no longer makes explicit demands to leave the EU. Shortly after the Brexit referendum, Marine Le Pen said she would follow a referendum on leaving the EU if she won the French 2017 Presidential election. Since then, Le Pen has no longer advocated for France to leave the EU but instead to reform the EU from within. She understood the difficulties accompanying the withdrawal process.
