Approximately seven years following the Brexit referendum, as proponents of the initiative endeavour to paint an optimistic picture, survey findings reveal an increasing lack of confidence among citizens in politics and a decline in the UK economy. This article addresses the following questions: What are Brexit’s enduring ramifications and anticipated gains? Furthermore, how has the post-Brexit era witnessed a reduction in British exports to the EU?
Debate in the House of Commons about the Brexit referendum
The potential long-term outcomes and expected advantages arising from Brexit are numerous. Nearly seven years ago, the UK narrowly voted in favour of Brexit in a referendum. On January 31, 2020, the country officially exited the EU. However, Brexit remains an ongoing process. Recently, the House of Commons readdressed the implications of leaving the EU. Stephen Flynn, leader of the Scottish National Party’s SNP, criticized UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, stating, “I believe, as is the case with anything originating from the UK Government, the crucial aspects will lie in the specifics.”
Brexit referendum blamed for the dire conditions of the UK economy
Inflation in the EU is not 8.7%, but closer to 6%. Years after the Brexit referendum, it must finally be accepted that the Brexit referendum is to blame for creating these conditions. Of course, Sunak dodged his answer.
The Conservatives attempt to paint a positive picture of Brexit
The anticipated long-term repercussions and advantages of Brexit are predominantly unfavourable. Despite the efforts of Brexiteers to portray a favourable narrative of departure from the EU, numerous scholars present data that tells a contrasting story. The impact on businesses has been substantial, with several calculations conducted through various methodologies. In the period spanning from January 2021 to September 2022, the analysis unequivocally demonstrates a decline in UK trade attributed to Brexit.
Decrease in British exports to the EU
UK exports to the EU are 23% lower, and imports from the EU are 13% lower than when the country was still a member of the EU. From Germany’s point of view, the balance is negative. The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) has called “Brexit an economic disaster for both sides of the channel.” While the UK was Germany’s fifth most important trading partner before Brexit, the UK is still in the top ten.
UK’s long-term productivity decline post-Brexit
The projected long-term outcomes and potential gains from Brexit may hold a more favourable outlook for many individuals in England. The UK’s independent regulator, OBR, posits that the country’s long-term productivity is expected to be four per cent lower than it would have been had Brexit not occurred. Furthermore, the agency expresses limited optimism regarding the new trade agreements forged by the UK government with non-EU nations, suggesting that these deals are unlikely to exert a substantial impact implying that they will contribute little to economic growth.
Changing political values in the UK in post-Brexit
However, Brexit holds implications that extend
beyond economic considerations for the British. Departing from the EU has also wrought significant political transformations within the country. Timothy Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, has recently released a book titled “The Post-Brexit Conservative Party.” In it, he explores shifts in ideology and challenges to democratic institutions, ultimately asserting that the Conservative Party has evolved into a more populist entity. Bale suggests that while the Conservative Party had previously dabbled in populism, the post-election period saw them fully embracing this populist ethos.
Changing relationship between citizens and politics in England
Bill does not believe the Conservatives will return to Conservative severe style after Boris Johnson leaves. He says the genie is out of the bottle, and the conservatives cannot catch it again. A historic referendum on June 23, 2016, changed the composition of the EU. Since then, much has changed in the UK, including the relationship between citizens and politics.
Three-quarters of British people do not trust politicians
Seven years after the Brexit referendum, three-quarters of Britons have lost confidence in their politicians. That’s according to London-based think tank UK in a Changing Europe survey, published today to mark the anniversary of the referendum. The results of this survey show that 75% of respondents said they have lost trust in British politicians in recent years.
The failure of the Brexit project from the point of view of the British
In a referendum on June 23, 2016, Britons voted to leave the EU by 52% to 48%. The process was completed on January 31, 2020. As the survey shows, a majority of 52% now believe that Brexit was not a success. Only one in ten people see it differently. Of those who voted for Brexit, only 15% regret it.
The British want to rejoin the EU
According to this, almost half of the respondents (48%) will vote to return to the EU in the referendum. Only about a third (32 per cent) favour staying out. Most people in the UK (54%) want to hear less about something other than Brexit.
Economic disaster in Anglo-German relations
The German economy paints a bleak picture on the seventh anniversary of the British Brexit vote. This assessment emerged seven years after the Brexit referendum, and its repercussions are evident, notably in the bilateral trade between the two nations. In 2022, Germany’s exports to the UK amounted to €73.8 billion, marking a 14.1 per cent decline from 2016, when the Brexit vote occurred.
Removal of the UK from critical export markets of the EU
While the UK was still Germany’s third most important export market in 2016, it will drop to eighth place in 2022, Volker Treier, head of foreign trade at the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), said. As a trading partner, exports and imports are combined in this balance – the country has since lost more importance, falling from fifth to eleventh place.
A decline in direct investment in the UK
The stock of German direct investment in the UK has also fallen. This share in 2021 was still around 140 billion euros, equivalent to a 16.1% decrease compared to 2016. Likewise, with 2,163 German companies operating there, 5.2 per cent less than in 2016, according to the DIHK. Their employees have also decreased by three per cent to 415,000 people.
Difficulty of business relations near post-Brexit
DIHK expert Treier said: “The UK’s exit from the EU has made our close trade relations more difficult, and there is still considerable planning and legal uncertainty in the UK business of German companies.” In addition, trade conflicts between the EU and the UK are risky.
The UK is struggling with high inflation and a cost of living crisis
The UK economy currently needs help with problems such as high inflation and the high cost of living. Consumer price inflation in May was 7.9% compared to last year’s. Economists expect the economic crisis to be stronger and longer in the UK than in similar countries. According to one study, by 2030, Brexit will cost every British worker £470 a year, roughly €550.
The British are tired of Brexit
At the same time, Brexit fatigue is high among citizens. In 2019, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson had “Get Brexit Done” on campaign posters, advertising that Brexit must be completed. But seven years after the referendum, this issue is still in question. Among those who were in favour of Brexit at the time, most agree that they wish we had stopped talking about Brexit. Brexit brought misery and problems to the British, who now look at the Brexiteers with hatred.
